The National Center for Education Statistics has come out with new projections for college enrollment growth-17% for the period 2004-2016. This is actually slower growth than the 22% jump between 1991 and 2005. College enrollment growth is increasing much faster than k-12 growth, so more students have the message that college pays off. NCES projects k-12 growth will be only 9% for 2004-2016.
This growth in college enrollment is heartening, but the key issue is whether students will complete their desired programs. Here the message is grim, 4 year college degrees are going up much slower than enrollment. Community college completion rates lag such as California where only 24% of the students complete anything [including career ed] after 6 years. Hopefully 2008 will be a year where we make some real progress on college success ,not just enrollment. See http://www.nces.gov/ for more details

Labels: College Completion, College Success Studies

Malcolm Getz at Vanderbilt has published a new book on payoffs from different kinds of colleges from the perspective of labor market returns for various careers. He provides what average earnings are in a variety of occupations and links these to colleges including community colleges. He analyzes whether it pays off to go to expensive private colleges compared to low cost publics. He also includes what one purchases from tuition after a student attends various types of colleges. I like his rare inclusion of the difference between tuition prices and the numerous discounts private schools offer.
Overall, this is the best consumer oriented fiscal analysis I have seen. It is directed at parents and students, not institutions or policy wonks. The book is Investing in College: A Guide for the Perplexed by Harvard University Press.

Labels: College Completion, college costs

While immigrants struggle to complete their programs at broad access postsecondary education, the University of California 8 campus system reports 54% of their students were born outside the USA, or have at least one foreign born parent. UC has a graduation rate that exceeds 80%. UC- Berkeley has 64% of its students from an immigrant background. These immigrant students are more oriented towards careers in technology and business than the rest of UC students . European American students are the most dominant group in political science and psychology.
The contrast of UC with California community colleges is stark, because only 17% of Latinos in community college complete any program[ including vocational certificates ]after 6 years. High Schools seem to have two tracks, one that leads to honors/ AP and a selective college. Another track is general college prep which has a low probability of college completion and adequate college preparation. Remediation rates for all high school students are 56% at California State University system and 70% at community colleges.

Labels: College Completion, College Preparation

Respected researcher James Rosenbaum of Northwestern Univerisity has a new book entitled : After Admission :From College Access to College Sucess published by Russell Sage Foundation. Its focus is exclusively on community colleges and private occupational colleges. The stunning news is how much better the private schools do on college completion, student guidance, and job placement. By contrast, community colleges use haphazard techniques and assume students are able to seek useful information by themselves. Public college students are uniformed about the number of credits they are earning, and the amount of time it will take to finish their program. Private colleges have better linkages to employers.


This is a serious indictment and deserves widespread discussion. In an earlier blog, I stressed how private occupational colleges have business models that require student persistence and completion. Public colleges can use a "churn model " that just keeps attendance stable or rising, but does not encourage completion. For example, California colleges are paid just for there third week enrollment in class.
Go to http://www.russellsage.org/ for this important book.

Labels: College Completion, College Success Studies, two year colleges

The lates OECD report "Education at A Glance ", 2007 shows the US is now 10th among developed countries in Percent of Adults with an Associate Degree or Higher Ages 25-34. US used to be first. But the news is even worse because large and growing states like California are declining even faster compared to other nations. The US completion rate for all types of college certificates or degrees has been stagnant for decades while other nations are increasing. This will have some negative implications for the US workforce skills in the near future.
The public has not caught on to this issue and continues to focus on k-12 problems. Public opinion ratings for postsecondary education remain high. Nothing much will happen until there is a groundswell of concern. I am surprised that business groups are not more active on this issue beyond their concern with math and science. New policies are needed that feature more than access and focus upon college completion and college success. Prior blogs have plenty of ideas.
For the report see www.oecd.org.

Labels: College Completion, Student Success

In 2004 ,38% of minority students attended "minority serving colleges ", but by 2004 this rose 58%. Minority serving includes colleges where minorities make up a large percentage of total students, as well as all minority serving institutions. The historically black colleges have declined as a percent of this minority enrollment, but new minority institutions have grown. This study by the federal government"s NCES provides some insights on the rapidly growing and changing broad access sector of postsecondary education. Selective colleges make up at most 15 to 20 % of enrollment in all colleges.
We know very little about the impact of these enrollment patterns on college success and completion. We do know remediation rates are very high and usually above 60% for community colleges. The broad access sector is crucial to minority college success, and we need a concerted research program to find out more about them. The study is at http://nces.ed.gov/

Labels: College Completion, College Success Studies, Student Success

My last blog covered the variety of 2 year public colleges. But many for profit firms focus on less than 4 year degrees such as Devry, ITT, Phoenix, Heald, and Career Education. The business models for these firms rely on student retention and growth to increase their stock price. So they try to limit dropouts and help students complete their program. It costs about 30% of tuition they get to recruit a student, so this is another incentive for retention
Public 2 year schools are not paid for completion. In California the community colleges are paid for third week in a semester attendance. So they can use a "churn business model "that keeps them solvent if new entrants equal drop outs. There is an urgent need to rethink the institutional funding incentives in the 2 year public sector. For some ideas on how to do this read Invest in Success by Sacramento State, www.csus.edu/ihe

Labels: College Completion, College Success Studies, two year colleges

My last blog covered the variety of 2 year public colleges. But many for profit firms focus on less than 4 year degrees such as Devry, ITT, Phoenix, Heald, and Career Education. The business models for these firms rely on student retention and growth to increase their stock price. So they try to limit dropouts and help students complete their program. It costs about 30% of tuition they get to recruit a student, so this is another incentive for retention
Public 2 year schools are not paid for completion. In California the community colleges are paid for third week in a semester attendance. So they can use a "churn business model "that keeps them solvent if new entrants equal drop outs. There is an urgent need to rethink the institutional funding incentives in the 2 year public sector. For some ideas on how to do this read Invest in Success by Sacramento State, www.csus.edu/ihe

Labels: College Completion, College Success Studies, two year colleges

When people think of 2 year schools they usually refer to comprehensive community colleges that offer college transfer, career education, adult classes, and community service. But 2 year schools are varied and differ a lot by state. California, Texas, and Florida have comprehensive 2 year colleges, but in Florida there are a few 4 year degrees offered. Ohio has 2 year branches that are linked to a specific university like Miami; voc tech colleges with no transfer to 4 year ;agricultural colleges, and military schools.
The Southeast has technical colleges that are not part of community colleges and linked to specific vocations. For example, South Carolina has 16 two year technical colleges serving mostly low income students. For the first time SC has established a transfer path from the technical to its 4 year system http://www.thestate.com/ . Georgia has a vast technical college system that is run by a chancellor who is independent of all other post secondary education. The point is two year education policy is much more complex than most analysts think it is. These lowest tiers of postsecondary education deserve more attention and research.

Labels: two year colleges