The College Puzzle Blog
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Dr. Michael W. Kirst

Michael W. Kirst is Professor Emeritus of Education and Business Administration at Stanford University since 1969.
Dr. Kirst received his Ph.D. in political economy and government from Harvard. Before joining the Stanford University faculty, Dr. Kirst held several positions with the federal government, including Staff Director of the U.S. Senate Subcommittee on Manpower, Employment and Poverty. He was a former president of the California State Board of Education. His book From High School to College with Andrea Venezia was published by Jossey Bass in 2004.

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My blog discusses the important and complex subjects of college completion, college success, student risk factors (for failing), college readiness, and academic preparation. I will explore the pieces of the college puzzle that heavily influence, if not determine, college success rates.

Book Explores Why Males Lag Females In College Success

Peg Tyre has written a book, The Trouble With Boys published by Crown, 2008. It is written primarily for parents rather than educators or policy makers, but is useful journalism.It is provactive and suggestive of future research in a field where so little is known. Why are boys reciving only 42% of four year degrees, and lag on almost all indicators of college preparation? She has numerous interviews with scholars and practioners, and offers some a way to move away from a boys versus girls analysis.

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My blog discusses the important and complex subjects of college completion, college success, student risk factors (for failing), college readiness, and academic preparation. I will explore the pieces of the college puzzle that heavily influence, if not determine, college success rates.

Performance in Middle Grades Strong Predictor Of College Success

A 2008 ACT report, "The Forgotten Middle" (www.act.org) finds that under current conditions the level of achievement that students attain by eight grade has a larger impact on their college and career readiness by the time they graduated from high school than anything that happens academically in high school. This includes family background, high school course work , and high school grade point average. ACT uses its 8th grade explore test for grade 8 and follows up with its grade 10 and 11 tests. Students who fall off the college prep track in middle school have a hard time recovering, but there are some student behaviors in high school that ACt finds can help.
I am part of a team doing a large scale survey of middle schools in California. More on this study in next blog, but our inital finding is how shallow the research base is on middle grades. Researchers have much more work completed on elementary and high schools, but there is no educational reason for this.

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My blog discusses the important and complex subjects of college completion, college success, student risk factors (for failing), college readiness, and academic preparation. I will explore the pieces of the college puzzle that heavily influence, if not determine, college success rates.

University of Washington Program is Designed Well for College Success

The Dream Project is a student-initiated
>high-school outreach program that operates as a
>University of Washington course and partners UW
>students with first-generation and low-income
>high school students to assist in the college
>admissions process. Over 100 UW undergraduates
>work with over 300 juniors and seniors in seven
>area high-schools. The undergraduates attend
>class once per week for an hour and a half, and
>then travel to the high-schools for at least one
>hour per week throughout the entire school
>year. In the high-schools, juniors and seniors
>work through the entire college application
>process with the UW undergraduates, including:
>thinking about the right "fit" for college,
>studying for the SAT and ACT, preparing
>articulate personal statements, turning in three
>or more college applications, understanding and
>filling out the FAFSA, applying for
>scholarships, matriculation, and the transition into college.
>
>
>
>Once they have transitioned into college, many
>students will find a community-in-waiting,
>especially if they choose to come to the
>University of Washington. Similarly, other
>college campuses across the state (and the
>nation) are either starting their own Dream
>Project this year or are currently learning how
>to start one in future years. These
>communities--groups of undergrads that are
>already friends with the transitioning high
>school students--help to ensure high retention
>and graduation rates of the Dream Project
>scholars. In effect, the line is blurred
>between high school student, college student,
>and college graduate because many students who
>are involved in the Dream Project start out in
>one of the partner high schools and then join
>the Dream Project as an undergraduate
>themselves, continuing the cycle of giving back
>to their community. In this way, high school
>students can find their older peers at nearly
>any of the colleges to which they apply.
>
>
>
>In the UW course, undergraduates learn about
>educational opportunity and social mobility
>while gaining the skills necessary to mentor the
>high school students throughout their
>preparation for and application to
>colleges. Each week, undergraduates work with
>and learn from college admissions counselors,
>financial aid and scholarship officers, SAT/ACT
>preparation experts, and numerous faculty and
>staff who speak about mentorship, social
>justice, non-profit work, and public schooling
>issues. Also, undergraduates are the leaders of
>the program--from collaborating with the high
>schools and school districts, to creating the
>class syllabus and course readings, to fund
>raising and development efforts. The
>undergraduates hold panels with the counseling
>staff from the high schools so that they can
>better understand how to collaborate and learn
>from one another's efforts. Similarly, the
>undergraduates work with an advisory committee
>of university faculty and staff to help the
>university understand the needs and changes of
>the program and the schools with which the Dream Project works.
>
>
>
>The Dream Project is unique on many levels, but
>two DP achievements are particularly relevant to
>this blog. First, the Dream Project has helped
>to develop better communication between and
>among the public high-schools it serves and the
>higher education world in Washington State,
>including career/college counselors, high-school
>administrators, teachers, parents, college
>admissions counselors, university
>administrators, and university faculty and
>staff. Second, the Dream Project has induced an
>"in-reach" effect by changing the culture of the
>high schools we serve, such that the younger
>high-school students and their teachers,
>administrators, counselors and parents are
>preparing earlier and more accurately for
>college admissions. The Dream Project's
>students--undergraduates and high schoolers--are
>well aware of the "myths" of college and have
>aimed to dispel those myths wherever they occur,
>which happens to be at all levels along the P-16
>continuum. I believe that is why the Dream
>Project's dedication to collaboration and
>communication between all areas of education
>(K-12, higher education, funding partners,
>students, and parents) has been so successful.

For more information contact: Jenee Meyers ,myersja@u.washington.edu

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My blog discusses the important and complex subjects of college completion, college success, student risk factors (for failing), college readiness, and academic preparation. I will explore the pieces of the college puzzle that heavily influence, if not determine, college success rates.

Many Components and Concepts Underly College Readiness and Culture

College readiness is an elusive and multi-faceted concept that has no standard definition. Consequently, there is confusion among terms like “college readiness”, “college culture”, “college preparedness”, etc. This paper will provide some arbitrary definitions based on my judgments from the most appropriate literature. The overall design starts with secondary school student readiness attributes and then moves to cultures in secondary schools that build readiness. It ends with analysis of measuring dimensions of readiness. My themes are how complex readiness is and how many dimensions need to come together in order to embody and help produce readiness.

David T. Conley has the broadest view of college readiness, so it is the best starting point (Conley, 2007). He breaks readiness down to four integrated components:

1. Habits of Mind – patterns of intellectual behavior that lead to the development of cognitive strategies and capabilities necessary for college work. Among these are: intellectual openness, inquisitiveness, analysis, reasoning, interpretation, precision and problem solving. Multiple choice tests cannot measure all these elements.
2. Overarching Academic Skills – writing, research, English, math, science, social studies, world languages, etc. These include skills such as: evaluate source material, synthesize, access information from a variety of locations, and written argumentation.
3. Academic Behavior – metacognition, mastery of study skills, time management, note taking, communication with teacher and advisers.
4. Conceptual Skills and Awareness – this is sometimes called “college knowledge” and encompasses teamwork, communication with others, understanding of college admission/placement, college options, financial aid applications, testing, college cultures, and expectations of postsecondary education.

College Culture in High Schools

It is a challenge for secondary schools to create, nurture and build student college readiness, but college culture can be an important determinant of all four components of college readiness. The Center for Educational Outreach, University of California has synthesized much of the research on college going culture (https://outreach. Berkeley.edu).

In schools where most disadvantaged students go to college, certain common factors are obvious. These schools create a college culture that all students and their families experience. Where such a culture exists, all students are prepared for a full range of postsecondary options through structural, motivational, and experiential college preparatory opportunities. In these schools…
• School leadership is committed to building a college culture
• All school personnel provide a consistent message to students that supports their quest for a college preparatory K-12 experience
• All counselors are college counselors
• Counselors, teachers and families are partners in preparing students for college.

Schools with a “college culture” usually exhibit most or all of the following Nine Critical Principals of a College Culture:

College Talk: Clear, ongoing communication among students, teachers administrators and families about what it takes to get to college
Clear Expectation: Explicit, clear-defined goals, and communication in ways that make them part of the culture of the school
Information and Resources: Comprehensive, up-to-date college information and resources that are easily accessible by all students, families and school personnel
Comprehensive Counseling Model: View of counseling that makes most student interactions with counseling staff opportunities for college counseling
Testing and curriculum: Information about and access to “gatekeeping” tests (PSAT, SAT, etc.) and courses (A-G, AP, etc. for all students
Faculty Involvement: Informed, active participation from school faculty in the creation and maintenance of a college culture
Family Involvement: Meaningful engagement on the part of family members in the process of building a college culture
College Partnerships: Active links in a variety of forms between the school and local colleges and universities
Articulation: Ongoing coordination between counselors and teachers about college access and success

Sources

Clifford Adelman, The Toolbox Revisited (U.S. Department of Education, 2006).
Consortium on Chicago School Research, From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (Chicago:University of Chicago, 2008).
David T. Conley, College Readiness (Eugene, Oregon: Educational Policy Improvement Center, 2007).
David T. Conley, “Reference Courses”, personal communication.

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My blog discusses the important and complex subjects of college completion, college success, student risk factors (for failing), college readiness, and academic preparation. I will explore the pieces of the college puzzle that heavily influence, if not determine, college success rates.

Remediation Effectiveness Studies Do Not Include Most Students

The July 4 Chronicle of Higher Education has an article "3 New Studies Ouestion the Value of Remediatial College Courses". These studies all report little impact in terms of college completion upon students who took remedial courses, or any substantial impact upon college persistence of at least one year. One of the studies found that remediation did not extend how long it took students to complete college. But the article stresses the way these studies were designed means only a minority of students who are in college remediation are included. Specifically, the studies excluded first year college students who had no chance of going into regular academic courses, and focused only on students near the placement test cut point for needing remedial placement. Since between 65 and 80% of community college students who come from high school need remdiation, these studies do not include the bulk of remedial students.
The authors of the studies acknowledge their limitations and say only a random assignment study could begin to get at the students who were not close to the test cut point.

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My blog discusses the important and complex subjects of college completion, college success, student risk factors (for failing), college readiness, and academic preparation. I will explore the pieces of the college puzzle that heavily influence, if not determine, college success rates.

Unintended Consequences of State Merit Aid Upon College Preparation and College Stem Course Taking

In prior blogs I have cautioned that state merit aid programs based on high secondary school grades may discourage students from taking difficult courses where they may get low grades. This will inhibit college success and college completion. Kentucky is concerned about this and now we have a study of Floridas merit aid program- Bright Futures- that found the worries have a basis in college course taking as well.. A study by Fla State U professor Shouping Hu shows a decline in Science and math courses at Fla colleges from students who got state scholarships from before and after Bright Futures started. Students need high college grades to maintain their aid.
This study is suggestive not conclusive, but much more research is needed because a lot of state money is devoted to these merit aid programs. Redesign of state aid may be necessary. The study is in May 29 issue of Inside Higher Ed.

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My blog discusses the important and complex subjects of college completion, college success, student risk factors (for failing), college readiness, and academic preparation. I will explore the pieces of the college puzzle that heavily influence, if not determine, college success rates.

More 8th grade algebra does not lower college remediation

The Sacramento bee on May 22 published an analysis of why students who take algebra in 8th grade instead of 9th are not lowering college remediation and improving college success. California state policy promoted 8th grade algebra to prepare students to take the full math college prep sequence in high school. Many more students are taking 8th grade algebra, but remediation rates of 56 % for Cal State U and nearly 80% for community colleges have not been lowered.
The article speculates on why. Many students get a C in 8th grade algebra, some do not take math in their senior year, and the 1Oth California high school exit test is way below college standards. Moreover, the community college placement tests are not aligned with the high school mathematics test standards for the higher level 11th grade California standards test.
So 8th grade algebra is no silver bullet and needs to be supplemented with many other policies. California ended its algebra professional development for middle school teachers years ago, and this may be a significant cause.

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My blog discusses the important and complex subjects of college completion, college success, student risk factors (for failing), college readiness, and academic preparation. I will explore the pieces of the college puzzle that heavily influence, if not determine, college success rates.

AVID Continures to Provide College Preparation

Advancement via Individual Determination (AVID) is a college preparation program for students in the middle achievement range who are low income. It was developed in 1980 and now includes 2,300 schools in 40 states and 15 countries. Some states like Ca. provide state funds to support it. AVID began as an add on program to middle and high schools but under it recent director has expanded to a whole school focus. It has several required components for particpating schools.
Like most college prep programs we have no randomized trials , but AVID has a well designed longitudinal study of positive college success and completion by former West Ed researcher Larry F. Guthrie. Seventy seven percent of Avid grads enroll in 4 year colleges. It is well worth checking out at www.avidcenter.org

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My blog discusses the important and complex subjects of college completion, college success, student risk factors (for failing), college readiness, and academic preparation. I will explore the pieces of the college puzzle that heavily influence, if not determine, college success rates.

Similar Students and Colleges, Different Completion Rates.

The Education Trust and Education Sector have used statistical analysis to document very different rates of graduation from similar institutions. For example, Education Sector's new report looks at different gaps between colleges in their black/white graduation rates and the colleges are all over the map. Many differ between 30 and 45 % in white vs black rates. But some colleges do relatively better like Florida State where the black graduation rate is higher. Why??
Education Sector suggests that Fla State has a summer program and special academic activities for black students at risk. But we really cannot know by just using statitistical analyses. Scholars need to do case studies of all types of colleges to find out, and just not look at the colleges with better graduation rates. The lower scoring colleges may be doing things like Fla. State. Much more effort is needed on college success studies. See the study at http://www.educationsector.org/

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My blog discusses the important and complex subjects of college completion, college success, student risk factors (for failing), college readiness, and academic preparation. I will explore the pieces of the college puzzle that heavily influence, if not determine, college success rates.

More On International Comparisons

The ACE report featured in my last blog, "Apples and Oranges in a Flat World" has the USA all over the place in various comparisons with other developed nations in terms of participation and attainment in post secondary education. The basic trend is USA still increasing, but at a rate not fast enough to be impressive. But the USA starts from such a high base of participation that it will take a while for more countries to surpass us in participation. But the k-16 problem in the future is ominious becasue of so many USA high school dropouts. For USA adults ages 55-64 , US is first in population that has" attained upper secondary education." But for the ages 25-34 group, US is tenth.
Go to http://www.acenet.edu/ and specify item 3111576

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My blog discusses the important and complex subjects of college completion, college success, student risk factors (for failing), college readiness, and academic preparation. I will explore the pieces of the college puzzle that heavily influence, if not determine, college success rates.

Guide to International Comparisons in Postsecondary Education

The American Council on Education has published a unique guide to understanding the status of USA postsecondary education compared to other developed countries. It is a laypersons guide called Apples and Oranges in a Flat World at http://www.acenet.edu/, specify item 311576. Yes, the US has slipped from first to seventh in college completion anong young adults in recent years compared to several countries.But some countries count completion as a vocational certificate,and the US includes only associate degrees that ordinarily take 2 years. So, the guide helps sort through these structural and conceptual differences that make international comparisons a risky business.
The overall outcome, however, is a US that is flat in terms of college attainment, while most other countires are increasing and closing the gap with us. For example, the number of bachelors degrees in science and technology in the US is increasing, but not keeping pace with gains in most other countries.

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My blog discusses the important and complex subjects of college completion, college success, student risk factors (for failing), college readiness, and academic preparation. I will explore the pieces of the college puzzle that heavily influence, if not determine, college success rates.

College Enrollment Keeps Going Up For Minorities

The American Council on Education has released a new report on Minorities in Higher Education, www.acenet.edu/. It shows progress in minority enrollment growth between 1994 and 2004- 49%! But the enrollment rate for men increased only 2% compared to 6% for women. The largest percentage increase for minorities was at private for profit institutions. Minorities earned 118% more masters degrees from 1994 to 2005. So there is some good news out there despite the persistent gap between minorities and whites/Asians in enrollment , and low college completion rates for minorities in community colleges. This is just a sampling of findings in the report.

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My blog discusses the important and complex subjects of college completion, college success, student risk factors (for failing), college readiness, and academic preparation. I will explore the pieces of the college puzzle that heavily influence, if not determine, college success rates.

College Enrollment Soaring But Completion is Not

The National Center for Education Statistics has come out with new projections for college enrollment growth-17% for the period 2004-2016. This is actually slower growth than the 22% jump between 1991 and 2005. College enrollment growth is increasing much faster than k-12 growth, so more students have the message that college pays off. NCES projects k-12 growth will be only 9% for 2004-2016.
This growth in college enrollment is heartening, but the key issue is whether students will complete their desired programs. Here the message is grim, 4 year college degrees are going up much slower than enrollment. Community college completion rates lag such as California where only 24% of the students complete anything [including career ed] after 6 years. Hopefully 2008 will be a year where we make some real progress on college success ,not just enrollment. See http://www.nces.gov/ for more details

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My blog discusses the important and complex subjects of college completion, college success, student risk factors (for failing), college readiness, and academic preparation. I will explore the pieces of the college puzzle that heavily influence, if not determine, college success rates.

New Book Access to College Success

Respected researcher James Rosenbaum of Northwestern Univerisity has a new book entitled : After Admission :From College Access to College Sucess published by Russell Sage Foundation. Its focus is exclusively on community colleges and private occupational colleges. The stunning news is how much better the private schools do on college completion, student guidance, and job placement. By contrast, community colleges use haphazard techniques and assume students are able to seek useful information by themselves. Public college students are uniformed about the number of credits they are earning, and the amount of time it will take to finish their program. Private colleges have better linkages to employers.


This is a serious indictment and deserves widespread discussion. In an earlier blog, I stressed how private occupational colleges have business models that require student persistence and completion. Public colleges can use a "churn model " that just keeps attendance stable or rising, but does not encourage completion. For example, California colleges are paid just for there third week enrollment in class.
Go to http://www.russellsage.org/ for this important book.

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My blog discusses the important and complex subjects of college completion, college success, student risk factors (for failing), college readiness, and academic preparation. I will explore the pieces of the college puzzle that heavily influence, if not determine, college success rates.

Minority Students Attend Minority Serving Colleges

In 2004 ,38% of minority students attended "minority serving colleges ", but by 2004 this rose 58%. Minority serving includes colleges where minorities make up a large percentage of total students, as well as all minority serving institutions. The historically black colleges have declined as a percent of this minority enrollment, but new minority institutions have grown. This study by the federal government"s NCES provides some insights on the rapidly growing and changing broad access sector of postsecondary education. Selective colleges make up at most 15 to 20 % of enrollment in all colleges.
We know very little about the impact of these enrollment patterns on college success and completion. We do know remediation rates are very high and usually above 60% for community colleges. The broad access sector is crucial to minority college success, and we need a concerted research program to find out more about them. The study is at http://nces.ed.gov/

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My blog discusses the important and complex subjects of college completion, college success, student risk factors (for failing), college readiness, and academic preparation. I will explore the pieces of the college puzzle that heavily influence, if not determine, college success rates.

For Profit 2 year Colleges Focus on Completion

My last blog covered the variety of 2 year public colleges. But many for profit firms focus on less than 4 year degrees such as Devry, ITT, Phoenix, Heald, and Career Education. The business models for these firms rely on student retention and growth to increase their stock price. So they try to limit dropouts and help students complete their program. It costs about 30% of tuition they get to recruit a student, so this is another incentive for retention
Public 2 year schools are not paid for completion. In California the community colleges are paid for third week in a semester attendance. So they can use a "churn business model "that keeps them solvent if new entrants equal drop outs. There is an urgent need to rethink the institutional funding incentives in the 2 year public sector. For some ideas on how to do this read Invest in Success by Sacramento State, www.csus.edu/ihe

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My blog discusses the important and complex subjects of college completion, college success, student risk factors (for failing), college readiness, and academic preparation. I will explore the pieces of the college puzzle that heavily influence, if not determine, college success rates.

For Profit 2 year Colleges Focus on Completion

My last blog covered the variety of 2 year public colleges. But many for profit firms focus on less than 4 year degrees such as Devry, ITT, Phoenix, Heald, and Career Education. The business models for these firms rely on student retention and growth to increase their stock price. So they try to limit dropouts and help students complete their program. It costs about 30% of tuition they get to recruit a student, so this is another incentive for retention
Public 2 year schools are not paid for completion. In California the community colleges are paid for third week in a semester attendance. So they can use a "churn business model "that keeps them solvent if new entrants equal drop outs. There is an urgent need to rethink the institutional funding incentives in the 2 year public sector. For some ideas on how to do this read Invest in Success by Sacramento State, www.csus.edu/ihe

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My blog discusses the important and complex subjects of college completion, college success, student risk factors (for failing), college readiness, and academic preparation. I will explore the pieces of the college puzzle that heavily influence, if not determine, college success rates.

Guest Blogger Su Jin Gatlin of WestEd: Admission of Low-Income Students at Selective Colleges

A significant amount of attention is focused on the role of race in the college choice process, although recent reports have begun to focus on the access problem that exists for students from low socioeconomic backgrounds, especially with regards to selective colleges. One report found that only about 10% of students at highly selective colleges came from the lowest 40% of the family income distribution. While race receives most of the public’s attention, we need to focus more on the role of income in who attends college.

Compounding the fact that low-income students have largely been ignored in the college admissions process is that they are the ones that benefit most from attending elite universities. These students benefit personally from higher rates of graduation and higher incomes after graduation, and society benefits from decreased dependence on public services and increased diversity in corporate, political, and military leadership.

Furthermore, most elite universities, while claiming to desire low SES students, have not been giving any them preferences during the admissions process. Findings like these on the effect of family income on college attendance have been remarkable, further highlighting the vast inequalities in higher education, especially at highly selective universities.

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My blog discusses the important and complex subjects of college completion, college success, student risk factors (for failing), college readiness, and academic preparation. I will explore the pieces of the college puzzle that heavily influence, if not determine, college success rates.

State Research Center Provides Good Data on College Preparation and College Success

Several states are using existing data to improve our understanding of college readiness, college persistence, and college completion. One of the best is the high school teacher quality on college readiness, high school reform, and geographic/racial college attainment.

For example, IERC found that attending college full-time trumps college readiness as a predictor of persistence in college. This reinforces the findings of Clifford Adelman in my last blog.

IERC emphasizes that initial student choice of college matters. Students who start at two year institutions need more institutional support to complete college than students who start at four year institutions. IERC demonstrates that among students who are equally prepared for college, two year entrants have less persistence than four year entrants.

In Illinois, nearly three quarters of the high school class of 2002 had some college. Illinois students who stopped out were unlikely to return to postsecondary education.

IERC demonstrates that examining persistence from data of single institutions in Illinois is misleading because so many students attend multiple institutions. State centers like IERC track Illinois students through the whole national higher education system to obtain more accurate conclusions. Everything I have seen in the Illinois data confirms the studies by Clifford Adelman in my two prior blogs.

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